Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Tue Oct 13?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 80° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 75° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 73° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–73° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 86° | 91° | 80° | — | 86° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 78° | 65° | 69° | — | 87° | — | — | 65–87° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 75° | 86° | 76° | — | 82° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 72° | 66° | 69° | — | 78° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 73° | 71° | 66° | — | 76° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 71° | 68° | 74° | 76° | 78° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 77° | 70° | 69° | 75° | 75° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 75° | 76° | 66° | 81° | 77° | — | — | 66–81° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 75° | 71° | 65° | 78° | 72° | 71° | 73° | 65–78° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 77° | 67° | 70° | 73° | 70° | 72° | 70° | 67–77° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 72° | 67° | 71° | 71° | 72° | 72° | 69° | 67–72° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 74° | 68° | 71° | 71° | 72° | 74° | 73° | 68–74° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 72° | 71° | 71° | 75° | 75° | 73° | 73° | 71–75° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 71° | 75° | 72° | 74° | 74° | 73° | 71–75° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.