Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Fri Oct 9?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 84° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 87° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-24 | — | 72° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-25 | 100° | 95° | 84° | — | 96° | — | — | 84–100° |
| 13d · 2026-09-26 | 90° | 76° | 85° | — | 101° | — | — | 76–101° |
| 12d · 2026-09-27 | 104° | 80° | 102° | — | 87° | — | — | 80–104° |
| 11d · 2026-09-28 | 104° | 97° | 104° | — | 105° | — | — | 97–105° |
| 10d · 2026-09-29 | 102° | 94° | 102° | — | 101° | — | — | 94–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-30 | 89° | 90° | 89° | 101° | 100° | — | — | 89–101° |
| 8d · 2026-10-01 | 82° | 84° | 93° | 101° | 100° | — | — | 82–101° |
| 7d · 2026-10-02 | 80° | 81° | 86° | 103° | 92° | — | — | 80–103° |
| 6d · 2026-10-03 | 77° | 79° | 85° | 102° | 94° | 102° | 93° | 77–102° |
| 5d · 2026-10-04 | 82° | 79° | 94° | 97° | 95° | 98° | 83° | 79–98° |
| 4d · 2026-10-05 | 82° | 78° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 94° | 91° | 78–94° |
| 3d · 2026-10-06 | 83° | 78° | 86° | 88° | 90° | 89° | 88° | 78–90° |
| 2d · 2026-10-07 | 80° | 80° | 86° | 93° | 88° | 90° | 84° | 80–93° |
| 1d · 2026-10-08 | 80° | 80° | 86° | 91° | 86° | 91° | 83° | 80–91° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.