Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Wed Sep 30?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Wed Sep 30 high anywhere from 79° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 86° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-15 | — | 77° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 77–94° |
| 14d · 2026-09-16 | 79° | 79° | 80° | — | 84° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-17 | 75° | 71° | 77° | — | 93° | — | — | 71–93° |
| 12d · 2026-09-18 | 76° | 78° | 84° | — | 80° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-19 | 96° | 83° | 92° | — | 99° | — | — | 83–99° |
| 10d · 2026-09-20 | 74° | 70° | 89° | — | 86° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 9d · 2026-09-21 | 90° | 92° | 84° | 94° | 98° | — | — | 84–98° |
| 8d · 2026-09-22 | 92° | 90° | 81° | 94° | 82° | — | — | 81–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-23 | 82° | 91° | 93° | 96° | 85° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-24 | 78° | 78° | 87° | 92° | 86° | 83° | 83° | 78–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-25 | 89° | 77° | 82° | 93° | 86° | 78° | 83° | 77–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-26 | 80° | 79° | 90° | 93° | 86° | 93° | 87° | 79–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-27 | 79° | 76° | 88° | 93° | 85° | 92° | 84° | 76–93° |
| 2d · 2026-09-28 | 80° | 77° | 87° | 90° | 85° | 89° | 83° | 77–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-29 | 80° | 76° | 88° | 90° | 87° | 86° | 82° | 76–90° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.