Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Sep 28?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 82° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 83° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 80° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 74–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 76° | 78° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 76–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 83° | 82° | 82° | — | 94° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 75° | 77° | 82° | — | 82° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 80° | 80° | 80° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 86° | 93° | — | 97° | — | — | 78–97° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 84° | 78° | 92° | 81° | 84° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 78° | 83° | 84° | 86° | 88° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 72° | 77° | 81° | 87° | 86° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 79° | 79° | 81° | 78° | 88° | — | 78–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 74° | 80° | 83° | 82° | 86° | 82° | 81° | 74–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 78° | 78° | 82° | 80° | 85° | 88° | 80° | 78–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 80° | 78° | 82° | 84° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 78–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 79° | 79° | 82° | 84° | 82° | 82° | 83° | 79–84° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 78° | 78° | 82° | 83° | 81° | 81° | 82° | 78–83° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.