Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Fri Sep 25?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 73° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 85° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.3°. ICON ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 75° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 84° | 73° | 78° | — | 80° | — | — | 73–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 75° | 78° | 93° | — | 80° | — | — | 75–93° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 76° | 77° | 76° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 75° | 75° | 77° | — | 76° | — | — | 75–77° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 78° | 80° | 80° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–81° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 78° | 75° | 82° | 86° | 83° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 83° | 74° | 78° | 86° | 80° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 73° | 78° | 85° | 88° | — | — | 73–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 83° | 74° | 88° | 84° | 90° | 95° | 79° | 74–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 83° | 75° | 90° | 88° | 86° | 92° | 75° | 75–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 86° | 76° | 86° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 79° | 76–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 85° | 77° | 92° | 95° | 91° | 91° | 80° | 77–95° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 83° | 80° | 91° | 91° | 90° | 90° | 83° | 80–91° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 81° | 80° | 88° | 89° | 87° | 91° | 82° | 80–91° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.