Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Sep 24?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Sep 24 high anywhere from 74° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 84° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. ICON ran 10° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-09 | — | 76° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 14d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 74° | 79° | — | 83° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 13d · 2026-09-11 | 79° | 72° | 74° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-12 | 77° | 74° | 87° | — | 81° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 11d · 2026-09-13 | 75° | 75° | 76° | — | 78° | — | — | 75–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-14 | 75° | 75° | 74° | — | 82° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 9d · 2026-09-15 | 79° | 78° | 80° | 95° | 83° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 8d · 2026-09-16 | 78° | 84° | 79° | 92° | 88° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-17 | 83° | 80° | 78° | 86° | 84° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-18 | 81° | 73° | 81° | 86° | 82° | 90° | 79° | 73–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 75° | 96° | 85° | 87° | 97° | 94° | 75–97° |
| 4d · 2026-09-20 | 82° | 74° | 87° | 86° | 85° | 90° | 79° | 74–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-21 | 83° | 75° | 87° | 92° | 87° | 98° | 81° | 75–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 75° | 88° | 92° | 87° | 94° | 80° | 75–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-23 | 81° | 75° | 90° | 90° | 85° | 94° | 84° | 75–94° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.