Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Fri Sep 18?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Fri Sep 18 high anywhere from 78° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 80° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-03 | — | 73° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 73–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-04 | 76° | 89° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-05 | 78° | 81° | 93° | — | 93° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 12d · 2026-09-06 | 88° | 72° | 82° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 84° | 86° | — | 89° | — | — | 84–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-08 | 79° | 76° | 88° | — | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-09 | 80° | 71° | 81° | — | 88° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-10 | 82° | 78° | 85° | 88° | 84° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-11 | 81° | 78° | 85° | 88° | 89° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-12 | 80° | 78° | 82° | 88° | 88° | 96° | — | 78–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-13 | 79° | 76° | 83° | 84° | 83° | 85° | 80° | 76–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-14 | 78° | 75° | 83° | 81° | 81° | 86° | 80° | 75–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-15 | 77° | 75° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 80° | 75–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-16 | 77° | 74° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 78° | 74–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-17 | 76° | 74° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 79° | 74–81° |
| 0d · 2026-09-18 | 76° | 74° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 81° | 79° | 74–81° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.