Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Sep 17?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 77° to 86°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 80° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-02 | — | 82° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 82–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-03 | 93° | 78° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 13d · 2026-09-04 | 77° | 86° | 77° | — | 84° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-05 | 81° | 79° | 90° | — | 93° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 11d · 2026-09-06 | 89° | 72° | 82° | — | 81° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-07 | 82° | 84° | 82° | — | 91° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 9d · 2026-09-08 | 79° | 76° | 84° | — | 87° | — | — | 76–87° |
| 8d · 2026-09-09 | 80° | 72° | 80° | 81° | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-10 | 79° | 74° | 83° | 93° | 86° | — | — | 74–93° |
| 6d · 2026-09-11 | 79° | 75° | 81° | 88° | 87° | 92° | — | 75–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 75° | 84° | 83° | 86° | 90° | 82° | 75–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-13 | 77° | 74° | 80° | 80° | 83° | 82° | 80° | 74–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-14 | 77° | 74° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 83° | 78° | 74–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-15 | 76° | 74° | 79° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 77° | 74–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-16 | 76° | 74° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 77° | 74–80° |
| 0d · 2026-09-17 | 76° | 73° | 78° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 76° | 73–80° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.