Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Wed Sep 16?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 78° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 81° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-01 | — | 71° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-02 | 77° | 84° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 13d · 2026-09-03 | 93° | 81° | 78° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 12d · 2026-09-04 | 78° | 84° | 76° | — | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 75° | 87° | — | 89° | — | — | 75–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-06 | 83° | 71° | 80° | — | 83° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 81° | 80° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 77° | 82° | 88° | 86° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-09 | 79° | 73° | 78° | 80° | 87° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-10 | 79° | 74° | 81° | 87° | 86° | 89° | — | 74–89° |
| 5d · 2026-09-11 | 78° | 75° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 88° | 79° | 75–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 74° | 83° | 81° | 86° | 84° | 79° | 74–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-13 | 77° | 74° | 82° | 79° | 83° | 82° | 78° | 74–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-14 | 76° | 74° | 81° | 83° | 81° | 83° | 78° | 74–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-15 | 76° | 73° | 81° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 76° | 73–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-16 | 76° | 74° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 77° | 74–82° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.