Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Sep 13?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sun Sep 13 high anywhere from 76° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 85° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIGFS ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-29 | — | 80° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 80–80° |
| 14d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 78° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 13d · 2026-08-31 | 78° | 76° | 88° | — | 78° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 12d · 2026-09-01 | 77° | 72° | 78° | — | 80° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 11d · 2026-09-02 | 75° | 78° | 77° | — | 83° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 10d · 2026-09-03 | 94° | 76° | 92° | — | 88° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 9d · 2026-09-04 | 86° | 82° | 78° | — | 89° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-05 | 85° | 75° | 86° | 92° | 79° | — | — | 75–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-06 | 89° | 72° | 78° | 93° | 84° | — | — | 72–93° |
| 6d · 2026-09-07 | 82° | 79° | 79° | 94° | 85° | 95° | — | 79–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-08 | 85° | 83° | 86° | 93° | 81° | 88° | 83° | 81–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-09 | 84° | 80° | 84° | 88° | 84° | 83° | 80° | 80–88° |
| 3d · 2026-09-10 | 85° | 78° | 87° | 90° | 85° | 86° | 84° | 78–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-11 | 83° | 80° | 88° | 89° | 87° | 87° | 82° | 80–89° |
| 1d · 2026-09-12 | 82° | 79° | 87° | 88° | 88° | 88° | 83° | 79–88° |
| 0d · 2026-09-13 | 81° | 78° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 88° | 84° | 78–88° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.