Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Sep 10?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 75° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 98° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 11° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 74° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 90° | 75° | 91° | — | 79° | — | — | 75–91° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 84° | 78° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 81° | 81° | 80° | — | 97° | — | — | 80–97° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 78° | 87° | — | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 76° | 74° | 77° | — | 86° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 75° | 87° | 81° | 91° | — | — | 75–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 79° | 91° | 81° | 74° | — | — | 74–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 92° | 84° | 92° | 83° | 88° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 93° | 86° | 90° | 97° | 92° | 98° | 86° | 86–98° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 91° | 86° | 96° | 96° | 95° | 100° | 94° | 86–100° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 89° | 84° | 91° | 98° | 95° | 98° | 98° | 84–98° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 89° | 84° | 92° | 99° | 95° | 98° | 95° | 84–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 90° | 84° | 93° | 101° | 94° | 99° | 96° | 84–101° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 92° | 87° | 96° | 103° | 95° | 98° | 95° | 87–103° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.