Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Tue Sep 8?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 76° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 92° against the FHMC1 observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-24 | — | 77° | — | — | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 76° | 82° | 90° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 80° | 76° | 89° | — | 93° | — | — | 76–93° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 77° | 89° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–89° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 83° | 88° | — | 87° | — | — | 83–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 84° | 88° | 89° | — | 89° | — | — | 84–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 88° | — | — | 84–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 83° | 82° | 80° | 88° | 87° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 84° | 81° | 87° | 85° | 92° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 86° | 80° | 86° | 91° | 85° | 90° | 88° | 80–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 93° | 91° | 91° | 90° | 86° | 92° | 87° | 86–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 93° | 92° | 88° | 92° | 91° | 93° | 86° | 86–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 94° | 94° | 91° | 95° | 94° | 100° | 89° | 89–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 91° | 96° | 87° | 98° | 95° | 97° | 94° | 87–98° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 92° | 94° | 88° | 100° | 95° | 94° | 88° | 88–100° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.