Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Sep 7?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 78° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 93° against the FHMC1 observations — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 16° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 80° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 80–81° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 81° | 73° | — | — | 93° | — | — | 73–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 84° | 78° | 78° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–84° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 78° | 71° | 90° | — | 90° | — | — | 71–90° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 89° | 83° | 91° | — | 85° | — | — | 83–91° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 79° | 88° | — | 90° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 90° | 82° | 92° | — | 89° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 88° | 88° | 96° | 85° | — | — | 80–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 95° | 94° | 92° | 82° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 84° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 88° | 98° | — | 84–98° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 87° | 83° | 89° | 85° | 81° | 86° | 88° | 81–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 89° | 86° | 89° | 89° | 90° | 91° | 94° | 86–94° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 88° | 89° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 92° | 90° | 87–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 89° | 90° | 89° | 89° | 90° | 93° | 87° | 87–93° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 89° | 91° | 88° | 96° | 91° | 96° | 90° | 88–96° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 89° | 77° | 97° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 77–97° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.