Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Aug 31?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
9 days out, 5 models put Los Angeles's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 84° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 86° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 85° | 84° | 92° | 88° | 96° | — | — | 84–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 83° | 78° | 86° | 86° | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 84° | 78° | 80° | 84° | 86° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 84° | 80° | 81° | 85° | 87° | 91° | 78° | 78–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 85° | 80° | 85° | 86° | 87° | 88° | 81° | 80–88° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 83° | 81° | 85° | 85° | 87° | 87° | 83° | 81–87° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 80° | 85° | 90° | 87° | 89° | 84° | 80–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 81° | 85° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 86° | 81–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 80° | 85° | 88° | 87° | 89° | 85° | 80–89° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.