Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sun Aug 30?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
8 days out, 5 models put Los Angeles's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 85° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 91° against the FHMC1 observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 89° | 85° | 96° | 93° | 92° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 86° | 82° | 87° | 87° | 91° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 85° | 81° | 88° | 87° | 88° | 94° | 85° | 81–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 82° | 90° | 86° | 91° | 96° | 88° | 82–96° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 81° | 91° | 87° | 91° | 90° | 87° | 81–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 81° | 92° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 87° | 81–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 83° | 91° | 94° | 90° | 91° | 88° | 83–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 83° | 91° | 95° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 83–95° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.