Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Aug 17?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 78° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 92° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIGFS ran 11° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-02 | — | 75° | — | — | 93° | — | — | 75–93° |
| 14d · 2026-08-03 | 82° | 78° | 84° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 13d · 2026-08-04 | 80° | 77° | 84° | — | 92° | — | — | 77–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-05 | 78° | 74° | 83° | — | 87° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 11d · 2026-08-06 | 77° | 81° | 87° | — | 91° | — | — | 77–91° |
| 10d · 2026-08-07 | 80° | 76° | 90° | — | 88° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-08 | 85° | 74° | 80° | 84° | 89° | — | — | 74–89° |
| 8d · 2026-08-09 | 82° | 80° | 85° | 89° | 84° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 7d · 2026-08-10 | 84° | 84° | 86° | 90° | 87° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-11 | 89° | 83° | 86° | 88° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 83–89° |
| 5d · 2026-08-12 | 88° | 81° | 92° | 88° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 81–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-13 | 86° | 82° | 87° | 89° | 87° | 83° | 85° | 82–89° |
| 3d · 2026-08-14 | 86° | 82° | 90° | 85° | 90° | 83° | 84° | 82–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-15 | 86° | 81° | 86° | 85° | 90° | 84° | 88° | 81–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-16 | 86° | 81° | 88° | 86° | 92° | 84° | 87° | 81–92° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.