Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Aug 10?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 73° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 94° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 3.1°. AIGFS ran 13° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-26 | — | 83° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 83–83° |
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 80° | 73° | 89° | — | 85° | — | — | 73–89° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 81° | 75° | 81° | — | 86° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 83° | 80° | 86° | — | 94° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 81° | 76° | 88° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 81° | 73° | 87° | — | 82° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 74° | 91° | 90° | 90° | — | — | 74–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 78° | 86° | 92° | 91° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 84° | 78° | 88° | 93° | 92° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 84° | 78° | 89° | 91° | 89° | 87° | 90° | 78–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 83° | 81° | 93° | 93° | 92° | 86° | 91° | 81–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 85° | 82° | 93° | 90° | 94° | 85° | 92° | 82–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 84° | 81° | 91° | 90° | 94° | 85° | 90° | 81–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 84° | 81° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 84° | 90° | 81–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 84° | 80° | 89° | 89° | 89° | 84° | 91° | 80–91° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.