Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Tue Aug 4?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
9 days out, 5 models put Los Angeles's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 83° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 88° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIGFS ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 83° | 85° | 84° | 94° | 93° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 83° | 77° | 86° | 92° | 90° | — | — | 77–92° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 83° | 78° | 86° | 94° | 91° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 82° | 76° | 86° | 94° | 93° | 89° | 89° | 76–94° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 76° | 91° | 93° | 91° | 85° | 88° | 76–93° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 82° | 77° | 92° | 93° | 93° | 84° | 88° | 77–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 77° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 85° | 86° | 77–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 78° | 90° | 90° | 91° | 84° | 87° | 78–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 82° | 79° | 88° | 86° | 86° | 83° | 88° | 79–88° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.