Was the forecast right for Denver on Thu Oct 22?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 35° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 74° against the DEN observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 38° | — | — | 57° | — | — | 38–57° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 66° | 35° | 64° | — | 59° | — | — | 35–66° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 67° | 43° | 62° | — | 70° | — | — | 43–70° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 44° | 60° | 52° | — | 72° | — | — | 44–72° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 47° | 51° | 56° | — | 58° | — | — | 47–58° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 46° | 73° | — | 54° | — | — | 46–73° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 55° | 47° | 58° | 66° | 65° | — | — | 47–66° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 66° | 69° | 76° | 73° | 68° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 68° | 69° | 79° | 72° | 71° | — | — | 68–79° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 66° | 70° | 81° | 68° | 73° | 74° | 67° | 66–81° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 69° | 74° | 76° | 73° | 72° | 74° | 71° | 69–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 69° | 70° | 78° | 76° | 73° | 74° | 72° | 69–78° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 69° | 69° | 75° | 78° | 71° | 69° | 72° | 69–78° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 68° | 70° | 74° | 77° | 71° | 75° | 67° | 67–77° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 69° | 70° | 76° | 75° | 71° | 70° | 74° | 69–76° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.