Was the forecast right for Denver on Thu Oct 22?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 2° to 19°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 22°. The day verified at 23° against the DEN observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 3° | — | — | 14° | — | — | 3–14° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 19° | 2° | 18° | — | 15° | — | — | 2–19° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 19° | 6° | 17° | — | 21° | — | — | 6–21° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 7° | 16° | 11° | — | 22° | — | — | 7–22° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 8° | 11° | 13° | — | 14° | — | — | 8–14° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 8° | 23° | — | 12° | — | — | 8–23° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 13° | 8° | 15° | 19° | 18° | — | — | 8–19° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 19° | 21° | 25° | 23° | 20° | — | — | 19–25° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 20° | 20° | 26° | 22° | 22° | — | — | 20–26° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 19° | 21° | 27° | 20° | 23° | 23° | 20° | 19–27° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 21° | 23° | 24° | 23° | 22° | 23° | 22° | 21–24° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 21° | 21° | 26° | 24° | 23° | 23° | 22° | 21–26° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 21° | 20° | 24° | 25° | 22° | 20° | 22° | 20–25° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 20° | 21° | 23° | 25° | 22° | 24° | 19° | 19–25° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 21° | 21° | 24° | 24° | 22° | 21° | 23° | 21–24° |
| actual | 23° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.