Was the forecast right for Denver on Thu Oct 15?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 60° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 55°. The day verified at 54° against the DEN observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 41° | — | — | 35° | — | — | 35–41° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 64° | 79° | 60° | — | 62° | — | — | 60–79° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 57° | 62° | 61° | — | 68° | — | — | 57–68° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 63° | 62° | 56° | — | 54° | — | — | 54–63° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 56° | 55° | 54° | — | 70° | — | — | 54–70° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 67° | 58° | 64° | — | 51° | — | — | 51–67° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 61° | 64° | 66° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–66° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 58° | 43° | 59° | 60° | 51° | — | — | 43–60° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 55° | 56° | 56° | 54° | 64° | — | — | 54–64° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 59° | 59° | 59° | 64° | 67° | 54° | 56° | 54–67° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 55° | 55° | 52° | 57° | 60° | 55° | 53° | 52–60° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 49° | 56° | 46° | 57° | 62° | 49° | 50° | 46–62° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 48° | 46° | 46° | 51° | 45° | 46° | 45–51° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 51° | 46° | 51° | 48° | 49° | 54° | 53° | 46–54° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 52° | 48° | 54° | 55° | 55° | 55° | 55° | 48–55° |
| actual | 54° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.