Was the forecast right for Denver on Thu Oct 15?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 15° to 26°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 13°. The day verified at 12° against the DEN observations, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 5° | — | — | 2° | — | — | 2–5° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 18° | 26° | 15° | — | 17° | — | — | 15–26° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 14° | 16° | 16° | — | 20° | — | — | 14–20° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 17° | 16° | 13° | — | 12° | — | — | 12–17° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 13° | 13° | 12° | — | 21° | — | — | 12–21° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 20° | 14° | 18° | — | 10° | — | — | 10–20° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 16° | 18° | 19° | — | 15° | — | — | 15–19° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 14° | 6° | 15° | 16° | 11° | — | — | 6–16° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 13° | 13° | 14° | 12° | 18° | — | — | 12–18° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 15° | 15° | 15° | 18° | 19° | 12° | 13° | 12–19° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 13° | 13° | 11° | 14° | 15° | 13° | 12° | 11–15° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 9° | 14° | 8° | 14° | 17° | 10° | 10° | 8–17° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 9° | 8° | 8° | 11° | 7° | 8° | 7–11° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 11° | 8° | 11° | 9° | 10° | 12° | 11° | 8–12° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 11° | 9° | 12° | 13° | 13° | 13° | 13° | 9–13° |
| actual | 12° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.