Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Oct 13?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 74° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 66° against the DEN observations, with 0.1 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 72° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–72° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 77° | 74° | 74° | — | 79° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 58° | 34° | 83° | — | 75° | — | — | 34–83° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 54° | 69° | 78° | — | 82° | — | — | 54–82° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 37° | 46° | 51° | — | 78° | — | — | 37–78° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 53° | 58° | 66° | — | 78° | — | — | 53–78° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 52° | 34° | 71° | 52° | 34° | — | — | 34–71° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 64° | 43° | 68° | 67° | 69° | — | — | 43–69° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 63° | 56° | 67° | 58° | 77° | — | — | 56–77° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 60° | 66° | 57° | 63° | 75° | 61° | 68° | 57–75° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 55° | 67° | 69° | 73° | 72° | 58° | 64° | 55–73° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 54° | 64° | 69° | 76° | 76° | 56° | 68° | 54–76° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 58° | 59° | 69° | 73° | 59° | 60° | 69° | 58–73° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 56° | 58° | 67° | 71° | 66° | 62° | 67° | 56–71° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 56° | 71° | 65° | 66° | 61° | 65° | 56–71° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.