Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Oct 13?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 23° to 26°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 18°. The day verified at 19° against the DEN observations, with 2.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | — | 22° | — | — | 20° | — | — | 20–22° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 25° | 23° | 23° | — | 26° | — | — | 23–26° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 14° | 1° | 28° | — | 24° | — | — | 1–28° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 12° | 21° | 25° | — | 28° | — | — | 12–28° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 3° | 8° | 10° | — | 25° | — | — | 3–25° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 12° | 14° | 19° | — | 25° | — | — | 12–25° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 11° | 1° | 22° | 11° | 1° | — | — | 1–22° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 18° | 6° | 20° | 20° | 20° | — | — | 6–20° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 17° | 14° | 20° | 14° | 25° | — | — | 14–25° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 15° | 19° | 14° | 17° | 24° | 16° | 20° | 14–24° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 13° | 20° | 21° | 23° | 22° | 14° | 18° | 13–23° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 12° | 18° | 20° | 25° | 25° | 13° | 20° | 12–25° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 14° | 15° | 21° | 23° | 15° | 16° | 21° | 14–23° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 13° | 14° | 20° | 22° | 19° | 17° | 20° | 13–22° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 14° | 21° | 18° | 19° | 16° | 18° | 14–21° |
| actual | 19° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.