Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Sep 22?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 73° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 83° against the DEN observations, with 0.07 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 78° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 78–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 73° | 81° | 87° | — | 77° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 77° | 76° | 80° | — | 85° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 72° | 64° | 76° | — | 84° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 82° | 67° | 74° | — | 82° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 77° | 70° | 80° | — | 83° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 79° | 74° | 72° | 75° | 82° | — | — | 72–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 63° | 77° | 72° | 73° | 73° | — | — | 63–77° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 71° | 74° | 75° | 74° | 79° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 70° | 76° | 72° | 75° | 80° | 81° | 72° | 70–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 73° | 72° | 72° | 74° | 80° | 79° | 79° | 72–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 74° | 75° | 75° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 82° | 74–82° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 73° | 76° | 78° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 73–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 75° | 75° | 79° | 81° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 75–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 77° | 77° | 80° | 83° | 81° | 82° | 80° | 77–83° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.