Was the forecast right for Denver on Tue Sep 22?
Denver, Colorado · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DEN observations
14 days out, 4 models put Denver's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 23° to 31°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 27°. The day verified at 28° against the DEN observations, with 1.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Denver scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 25° | — | — | 26° | — | — | 25–26° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 23° | 27° | 31° | — | 25° | — | — | 23–31° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 25° | 24° | 27° | — | 30° | — | — | 24–30° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 22° | 18° | 24° | — | 29° | — | — | 18–29° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 28° | 19° | 23° | — | 28° | — | — | 19–28° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 25° | 21° | 27° | — | 29° | — | — | 21–29° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 26° | 23° | 22° | 24° | 28° | — | — | 22–28° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 17° | 25° | 22° | 23° | 23° | — | — | 17–25° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 22° | 24° | 24° | 24° | 26° | — | — | 22–26° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 21° | 24° | 22° | 24° | 27° | 27° | 22° | 21–27° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 23° | 22° | 22° | 23° | 27° | 26° | 26° | 22–27° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 24° | 24° | 24° | 27° | 27° | 26° | 28° | 24–28° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 23° | 24° | 26° | 27° | 27° | 26° | 25° | 23–27° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 24° | 24° | 26° | 27° | 27° | 27° | 27° | 24–27° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 25° | 25° | 27° | 28° | 27° | 28° | 27° | 25–28° |
| actual | 28° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Denver — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DEN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.