Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sat Oct 3?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sat Oct 3 high anywhere from 73° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 75° against the DAL observations, with 0.17 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-18 | — | 87° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 87–90° |
| 14d · 2026-09-19 | 85° | 78° | 73° | — | 81° | — | — | 73–85° |
| 13d · 2026-09-20 | 73° | 84° | 85° | — | 91° | — | — | 73–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-21 | 85° | 82° | 82° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 76° | 82° | — | 94° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 10d · 2026-09-23 | 85° | 88° | 90° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-24 | 78° | 83° | 88° | 84° | 93° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 8d · 2026-09-25 | 79° | 87° | 78° | 79° | 92° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-26 | 77° | 81° | 73° | 73° | 86° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-27 | 84° | 71° | 76° | 73° | 74° | 70° | 74° | 70–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-28 | 77° | 78° | 80° | 70° | 76° | 74° | 84° | 70–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-29 | 76° | 77° | 79° | 72° | 75° | 76° | 83° | 72–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-30 | 74° | 73° | 75° | 72° | 79° | 78° | 74° | 72–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-01 | 73° | 73° | 77° | 74° | 73° | 76° | 73° | 73–77° |
| 1d · 2026-10-02 | 73° | 72° | 75° | 76° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 72–76° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.