Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Oct 2?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 79° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 81° against the DAL observations, with 0.17 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 3.0°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 88° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 88–94° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 79° | 86° | 88° | — | 93° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 81° | 75° | 76° | — | 78° | — | — | 75–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 80° | 82° | 84° | — | 95° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 89° | 80° | 80° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 78° | 70° | 80° | — | 93° | — | — | 70–93° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 81° | 90° | 82° | 82° | 76° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 81° | 77° | 88° | 82° | 88° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 82° | 85° | 76° | 82° | 94° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 76° | 79° | 76° | 76° | 81° | 81° | 83° | 76–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 83° | 77° | 76° | 75° | 76° | 73° | 81° | 73–83° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 78° | 78° | 77° | 74° | 80° | 77° | 86° | 74–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 79° | 81° | 79° | 75° | 81° | 80° | 85° | 75–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 79° | 74° | 79° | 76° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 74–80° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 75° | 77° | 77° | 74° | 84° | 77° | 78° | 74–84° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.