Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Sep 25?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Fri Sep 25 high anywhere from 79° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 92° against the DAL observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-10 | — | 92° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 92–98° |
| 14d · 2026-09-11 | 90° | 80° | 79° | — | 100° | — | — | 79–100° |
| 13d · 2026-09-12 | 101° | 80° | 83° | — | 95° | — | — | 80–101° |
| 12d · 2026-09-13 | 91° | 89° | 87° | — | 90° | — | — | 87–91° |
| 11d · 2026-09-14 | 88° | 93° | 92° | — | 93° | — | — | 88–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-15 | 92° | 95° | 100° | — | 101° | — | — | 92–101° |
| 9d · 2026-09-16 | 89° | 91° | 84° | 89° | 99° | — | — | 84–99° |
| 8d · 2026-09-17 | 84° | 83° | 80° | 88° | 91° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-18 | 84° | 85° | 90° | 84° | 95° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-19 | 88° | 91° | 88° | 91° | 96° | 87° | 93° | 87–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-20 | 86° | 86° | 93° | 90° | 95° | 84° | 90° | 84–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-21 | 86° | 87° | 95° | 88° | 94° | 86° | 91° | 86–95° |
| 3d · 2026-09-22 | 86° | 87° | 94° | 88° | 95° | 94° | 88° | 86–95° |
| 2d · 2026-09-23 | 86° | 88° | 93° | 88° | 94° | 93° | 90° | 86–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-24 | 88° | 88° | 90° | 88° | 93° | 90° | 91° | 88–93° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.