Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Sep 22?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 73° to 101°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 98° against the DAL observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ICON ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 88° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 88–98° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 89° | 78° | 73° | — | 101° | — | — | 73–101° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 83° | 80° | 86° | — | 93° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 80° | 85° | — | 88° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 86° | 82° | 77° | — | 94° | — | — | 77–94° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 99° | 85° | 77° | — | 90° | — | — | 77–99° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 84° | 88° | 88° | 82° | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 85° | 96° | 88° | 89° | 92° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 95° | 96° | 99° | 93° | 100° | — | — | 93–100° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 94° | 90° | 97° | 97° | 99° | 95° | 96° | 90–99° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 92° | 87° | 90° | 92° | 95° | 91° | 95° | 87–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 89° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 97° | 92° | 97° | 89–97° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 93° | 91° | 90° | 91° | 94° | 88° | 92° | 88–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 92° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 98° | 93° | 97° | 91–98° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 93° | 93° | 93° | 94° | 98° | 92° | 96° | 92–98° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.