Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Sep 21?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 86° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 98° against the DAL observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°. ECMWF ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 101° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 84–101° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 86° | 86° | 98° | — | 96° | — | — | 86–98° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 84° | 76° | 74° | — | 102° | — | — | 74–102° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 92° | 79° | 80° | — | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 78° | 88° | 81° | — | 79° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 90° | 76° | 87° | — | 91° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 99° | 86° | 81° | 94° | 87° | — | — | 81–99° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 88° | 90° | 97° | 94° | 91° | — | — | 88–97° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 88° | 95° | 89° | 88° | 89° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 89° | 95° | 99° | 96° | 102° | 102° | 96° | 89–102° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 92° | 92° | 101° | 97° | 100° | 98° | 97° | 92–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 91° | 92° | 95° | 97° | 101° | 88° | 96° | 88–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 92° | 91° | 95° | 96° | 99° | 92° | 96° | 91–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 92° | 91° | 94° | 95° | 95° | 88° | 91° | 88–95° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 91° | 93° | 89° | 95° | 97° | 94° | 97° | 89–97° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.