Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sun Sep 20?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 89° to 102°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 98° against the DAL observations — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 92° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 92–95° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 88° | 78° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 100° | 89° | 95° | — | 102° | — | — | 89–102° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 97° | 78° | 85° | — | 100° | — | — | 78–100° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 95° | 85° | 98° | — | 104° | — | — | 85–104° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 91° | 83° | 90° | — | 94° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 90° | 90° | 91° | — | 87° | — | — | 87–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 92° | 84° | 75° | 88° | 91° | — | — | 75–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 97° | 95° | 98° | 95° | 99° | — | — | 95–99° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 99° | 96° | 98° | 97° | 98° | 101° | — | 96–101° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 97° | 95° | 100° | 96° | 101° | 99° | 99° | 95–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 96° | 95° | 100° | 96° | 99° | 100° | 98° | 95–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 95° | 96° | 99° | 96° | 98° | 100° | 97° | 95–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 95° | 96° | 99° | 96° | 100° | 100° | 98° | 95–100° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 95° | 95° | 99° | 97° | 101° | 100° | 97° | 95–101° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 94° | 95° | 98° | 97° | 98° | 97° | 100° | 94–100° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.