Was the forecast right for Dallas on Thu Sep 3?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 96° to 105°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 92° against the DAL observations — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.6°. ICON ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 96° | 101° | 105° | — | 103° | — | — | 96–105° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 100° | 99° | 97° | — | 107° | — | — | 97–107° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 101° | 102° | 104° | — | 105° | — | — | 101–105° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 102° | 99° | 101° | — | 110° | — | — | 99–110° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 101° | 98° | 101° | — | 106° | — | — | 98–106° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 102° | 103° | 101° | 101° | 104° | — | — | 101–104° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 102° | 102° | 101° | 101° | 104° | — | — | 101–104° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 102° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 103° | 102° | — | 100–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 101° | 97° | 102° | 98° | 104° | 102° | 98° | 97–104° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 96° | 94° | 97° | 95° | 100° | 99° | 100° | 94–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 92° | 93° | 86° | 94° | 96° | 92° | 94° | 86–96° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 91° | 88° | 92° | 95° | 81° | 86° | 88° | 81–95° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 88° | 91° | 86° | 93° | 90° | 88° | 93° | 86–93° |
| 0d · 2026-09-03 | 86° | 87° | 89° | 90° | 87° | 84° | 84° | 84–90° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.