Was the forecast right for Chicago on Fri Oct 16?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 47° to 60°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 58° against the MDW observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 9° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 72° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–72° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 47° | 57° | 60° | — | 59° | — | — | 47–60° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 67° | 53° | 53° | — | 50° | — | — | 50–67° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 70° | 56° | 66° | — | 62° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 58° | 65° | 69° | — | 67° | — | — | 58–69° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 53° | 60° | 66° | — | 66° | — | — | 53–66° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 61° | 66° | 55° | 54° | 83° | — | — | 54–83° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 59° | 74° | 68° | 56° | 71° | — | — | 56–74° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 58° | 63° | 63° | 57° | 67° | — | — | 57–67° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 56° | 58° | 58° | 69° | 62° | 63° | 62° | 56–69° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 58° | 52° | 59° | 57° | 54° | 57° | 59° | 52–59° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 55° | 59° | 58° | 56° | 60° | 57° | 55–60° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 60° | 56° | 61° | 62° | 60° | 59° | 58° | 56–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 59° | 57° | 68° | 58° | 58° | 61° | 62° | 57–68° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 60° | 58° | 67° | 61° | 61° | 62° | 63° | 58–67° |
| actual | 58° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.