Was the forecast right for Chicago on Fri Oct 16?
Chicago, Illinois · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MDW observations
14 days out, 4 models put Chicago's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 8° to 16°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 16°. The day verified at 14° against the MDW observations, with 0.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Chicago scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 22° | — | — | 20° | — | — | 20–22° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 8° | 14° | 16° | — | 15° | — | — | 8–16° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 19° | 12° | 11° | — | 10° | — | — | 10–19° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 21° | 13° | 19° | — | 17° | — | — | 13–21° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 15° | 18° | 20° | — | 20° | — | — | 15–20° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 12° | 16° | 19° | — | 19° | — | — | 12–19° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 16° | 19° | 13° | 12° | 28° | — | — | 12–28° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 15° | 24° | 20° | 14° | 22° | — | — | 14–24° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 15° | 17° | 17° | 14° | 19° | — | — | 14–19° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 13° | 15° | 15° | 21° | 17° | 17° | 16° | 13–21° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 14° | 11° | 15° | 14° | 12° | 14° | 15° | 11–15° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 13° | 15° | 14° | 13° | 15° | 14° | 13–15° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 15° | 13° | 16° | 17° | 15° | 15° | 15° | 13–17° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 15° | 14° | 20° | 14° | 15° | 16° | 17° | 14–20° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 16° | 14° | 20° | 16° | 16° | 17° | 17° | 14–20° |
| actual | 14° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Chicago — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MDW observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.