Was the forecast right for Charlotte on Tue Sep 22?
Charlotte, North Carolina · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the CLT observations
14 days out, 4 models put Charlotte's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 67° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the CLT observations, with 0.16 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Charlotte scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 77° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 77–83° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 67° | 71° | 76° | — | 72° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 82° | 67° | 68° | — | 79° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 62° | 70° | 72° | — | 68° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 73° | 72° | 89° | — | 74° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 89° | 72° | 78° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–89° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 81° | 69° | 92° | 84° | 84° | — | — | 69–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 82° | 67° | 84° | 79° | 80° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 78° | 70° | 75° | 86° | 83° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 79° | 68° | 82° | 74° | 68° | 90° | 76° | 68–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 80° | 81° | 83° | 79° | 88° | 78° | 82° | 78–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 75° | 75° | 77° | 81° | 72° | 71° | 71–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 80° | 77° | 83° | 89° | 78° | 78° | 77° | 77–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 80° | 80° | 88° | 86° | 84° | 84° | 80° | 80–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 84° | 84° | 84° | 88° | 85° | 85° | 86° | 84–88° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Charlotte — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the CLT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.