The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Wed Sep 2?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

13 days out, 4 models put Boston's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 71° to 78°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 72° against the BOS observations — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 2° cold.

13 days out the models said 71–78; it hit 72. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 2°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
13d · 2026-08-20 75° 71° 72° 78° 71–78°
12d · 2026-08-21 80° 78° 73° 83° 73–83°
11d · 2026-08-22 75° 69° 78° 69° 69–78°
10d · 2026-08-23 82° 83° 73° 66° 66–83°
9d · 2026-08-24 85° 68° 73° 64° 64–85°
8d · 2026-08-25 82° 80° 82° 84° 70° 70–84°
7d · 2026-08-26 81° 86° 92° 76° 71° 71–92°
6d · 2026-08-27 74° 85° 71° 73° 65° 89° 65–89°
5d · 2026-08-28 73° 76° 80° 70° 69° 71° 81° 69–81°
4d · 2026-08-29 71° 70° 72° 69° 68° 71° 79° 68–79°
3d · 2026-08-30 70° 72° 72° 68° 68° 72° 70° 68–72°
2d · 2026-08-31 71° 73° 73° 71° 70° 71° 71° 70–73°
1d · 2026-09-01 72° 73° 72° 74° 70° 72° 71° 70–74°
0d · 2026-09-02 71° 74° 72° 73° 70° 72° 71° 70–74°
actual 72°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.