The Spread

Was the forecast right for Boston on Wed Sep 2?

Boston, Massachusetts · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BOS observations

13 days out, 4 models put Boston's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 22° to 25°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 22°. The day verified at 22° against the BOS observations — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 1° cold.

13 days out the models said 22–25; it hit 22. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Boston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
13d · 2026-08-20 24° 22° 22° 25° 22–25°
12d · 2026-08-21 27° 25° 23° 28° 23–28°
11d · 2026-08-22 24° 21° 26° 20° 20–26°
10d · 2026-08-23 28° 28° 23° 19° 19–28°
9d · 2026-08-24 29° 20° 23° 18° 18–29°
8d · 2026-08-25 28° 27° 28° 29° 21° 21–29°
7d · 2026-08-26 27° 30° 33° 24° 22° 22–33°
6d · 2026-08-27 24° 29° 22° 23° 18° 31° 18–31°
5d · 2026-08-28 23° 24° 27° 21° 20° 22° 27° 20–27°
4d · 2026-08-29 22° 21° 22° 21° 20° 22° 26° 20–26°
3d · 2026-08-30 21° 22° 22° 20° 20° 22° 21° 20–22°
2d · 2026-08-31 22° 23° 23° 22° 21° 22° 22° 21–23°
1d · 2026-09-01 22° 23° 22° 23° 21° 22° 22° 21–23°
0d · 2026-09-02 22° 23° 22° 23° 21° 22° 22° 21–23°
actual 22°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Boston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BOS observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.