Was the forecast right for Berlin on Tue Sep 8?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
10 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 68° to 78°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 84° against the EDDB observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.2°. GEM ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 70° | 69° | 68° | — | 78° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 69° | 80° | 71° | 73° | 85° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 76° | 81° | 75° | 80° | 72° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 81° | 78° | 69° | 75° | 80° | — | — | 69–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 76° | 82° | 71° | 76° | 72° | 80° | 70° | 70–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 76° | 82° | 75° | 73° | 75° | 79° | 72° | 72–82° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 76° | 81° | 69° | 75° | 81° | 74° | 71° | 69–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 77° | 74° | 74° | 75° | 79° | 74° | 76° | 74–79° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 77° | 81° | 73° | 82° | 81° | 77° | 79° | 73–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 79° | 86° | 80° | 79° | 79–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-08 | 81° | 81° | 79° | 79° | 86° | 83° | 80° | 79–86° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.