Was the forecast right for Berlin on Tue Sep 8?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
10 days out, 4 models put Berlin's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 20° to 26°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 27°. The day verified at 29° against the EDDB observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 21° | 21° | 20° | — | 26° | — | — | 20–26° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 21° | 27° | 21° | 23° | 29° | — | — | 21–29° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 24° | 27° | 24° | 27° | 22° | — | — | 22–27° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 27° | 25° | 21° | 24° | 27° | — | — | 21–27° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 24° | 28° | 22° | 25° | 22° | 26° | 21° | 21–28° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 24° | 28° | 24° | 23° | 24° | 26° | 22° | 22–28° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 24° | 27° | 20° | 24° | 27° | 23° | 22° | 20–27° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 25° | 24° | 23° | 24° | 26° | 24° | 24° | 23–26° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 25° | 27° | 23° | 28° | 27° | 25° | 26° | 23–28° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 27° | 27° | 27° | 26° | 30° | 27° | 26° | 26–30° |
| 0d · 2026-09-08 | 27° | 27° | 26° | 26° | 30° | 28° | 27° | 26–30° |
| actual | 29° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.