Was the forecast right for Berlin on Mon Sep 7?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
9 days out, 5 models put Berlin's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 67° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 69°. The day verified at 70° against the EDDB observations, with 0.09 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. ICON ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 79° | 67° | 80° | 84° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 77° | 69° | 75° | 73° | 72° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 81° | 76° | 83° | 83° | 83° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 71° | 76° | 74° | 82° | 69° | 78° | 80° | 69–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 75° | 76° | 80° | 72° | 76° | 82° | 80° | 72–82° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 73° | 76° | 75° | 75° | 78° | 77° | 79° | 73–79° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 71° | 74° | 71° | 74° | 80° | 77° | 77° | 71–80° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 72° | 76° | 69° | 70° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 69–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 69° | 72° | 68° | 71° | 75° | 65° | 68° | 65–75° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 67° | 70° | 68° | 69° | 74° | 65° | 70° | 65–74° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.