Was the forecast right for Berlin on Mon Sep 7?
Berlin, State of Berlin · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the EDDB observations
9 days out, 5 models put Berlin's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 20° to 29°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 20°. The day verified at 21° against the EDDB observations, with 2.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. ICON ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Berlin scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 28° | 26° | 20° | 26° | 29° | — | — | 20–29° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 25° | 20° | 24° | 23° | 22° | — | — | 20–25° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 27° | 24° | 28° | 29° | 29° | — | — | 24–29° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 22° | 24° | 23° | 28° | 21° | 26° | 27° | 21–28° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 24° | 24° | 26° | 22° | 24° | 28° | 27° | 22–28° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 23° | 24° | 24° | 24° | 26° | 25° | 26° | 23–26° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 22° | 24° | 22° | 23° | 26° | 25° | 25° | 22–26° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 22° | 24° | 20° | 21° | 26° | 25° | 26° | 20–26° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 21° | 22° | 20° | 22° | 24° | 18° | 20° | 18–24° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 20° | 21° | 20° | 20° | 23° | 18° | 21° | 18–23° |
| actual | 21° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Berlin — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the EDDB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.