Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sat Sep 12?
Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 75° to 86°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 85° against the ATL observations, with 0.62 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 82° | — | — | 87° | — | — | 82–87° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 91° | 93° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 91–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 81° | 75° | — | 86° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 88° | 87° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 92° | 92° | 99° | — | 97° | — | — | 92–99° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 91° | 90° | 92° | — | 97° | — | — | 90–97° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 88° | 94° | — | 102° | — | — | 84–102° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 83° | 90° | 94° | 97° | 92° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 88° | 92° | 85° | 89° | — | — | 85–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 88° | 83° | 92° | 89° | 92° | 92° | — | 83–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 86° | 88° | 88° | 77° | 91° | 88° | 92° | 77–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 83° | 88° | 87° | 77° | 87° | 85° | 91° | 77–91° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 82° | 81° | 82° | 81° | 93° | 86° | 87° | 81–93° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 82° | 82° | 86° | 90° | 86° | 81° | 88° | 81–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 83° | 81° | 81° | 83° | 86° | 85° | 80° | 80–86° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 79° | 82° | 83° | 81° | 84° | 81° | 82° | 79–84° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.