The Spread

Was the forecast right for Atlanta on Sat Sep 12?

Atlanta, Georgia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ATL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Atlanta's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 24° to 30°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 28°. The day verified at 29° against the ATL observations, with 15.7 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 4° cold.

13 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.7°C); AIFS ran 4°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Atlanta scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-28 — 28° — — 31° — — 28–31°
14d · 2026-08-29 33° 34° — — 33° — — 33–34°
13d · 2026-08-30 29° 27° 24° — 30° — — 24–30°
12d · 2026-08-31 28° 31° 30° — 24° — — 24–31°
11d · 2026-09-01 33° 33° 37° — 36° — — 33–37°
10d · 2026-09-02 33° 32° 34° — 36° — — 32–36°
9d · 2026-09-03 29° 31° 34° — 39° — — 29–39°
8d · 2026-09-04 28° 32° 35° 36° 33° — — 28–36°
7d · 2026-09-05 31° 31° 33° 29° 32° — — 29–33°
6d · 2026-09-06 31° 28° 33° 32° 34° 33° — 28–34°
5d · 2026-09-07 30° 31° 31° 25° 33° 31° 33° 25–33°
4d · 2026-09-08 28° 31° 30° 25° 31° 30° 33° 25–33°
3d · 2026-09-09 28° 27° 28° 27° 34° 30° 30° 27–34°
2d · 2026-09-10 28° 28° 30° 32° 30° 27° 31° 27–32°
1d · 2026-09-11 28° 27° 27° 28° 30° 29° 27° 27–30°
0d · 2026-09-12 26° 28° 28° 27° 29° 27° 28° 26–29°
actual 29°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Atlanta — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ATL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.