Which weather model is most accurate in your city?
The Spread — the forecast spread — archives what every major model predicted, then scores those forecasts against what actually happened. The honest headline, most days and most places: it's close. Where nobody leads by more than the noise, this page says so and shows the whole field — a crown won by a tenth of a degree is a coin flip wearing a ribbon. Pick a city:
| City | The race | Verdict | Spread today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta, Georgia | ECMWF & AIGFS within 0.12°F | — | |
| Berlin, State of Berlin | GFS & UKMO within 0.27°F | 7°F | |
| Boston, Massachusetts | GEM & ICON within 0.06°F | — | |
| Buffalo, New York | ICON & UKMO within 0.02°F | — | |
| Charlotte, North Carolina | ECMWF & AIGFS within 0.05°F | — | |
| Chicago, Illinois | ICON & GFS within 0.14°F | — | |
| Dallas, Texas | UKMO & AIGFS within 0.15°F | — | |
| Denver, Colorado | UKMO & ECMWF within 0.01°F | — | |
| Detroit, Michigan | UKMO & ICON within 0.04°F | — | |
| Houston, Texas | GEM & ICON within 0.06°F | — | |
| London, England | ICON & GFS within 0.24°F | 5°F | |
| Los Angeles, California | ECMWF & GFS within 0.28°F | — | |
| Miami, Florida | ICON & UKMO within 0.16°F | — | |
| Milan, Lombardy | ICON & AIGFS within 0.36°F | 3°F | |
| Minneapolis, Minnesota | UKMO & ECMWF within 0.18°F | — | |
| New Orleans, Louisiana | ICON by 0.65°F over AIGFS | — | |
| New York, New York | AIFS by 0.76°F over ECMWF | — | |
| Oklahoma City, Oklahoma | AIGFS & ECMWF within 0.1°F | 3°F | |
| Orlando, Florida | AIGFS by 0.51°F over UKMO | 9°F | |
| Paris, Île-de-France Region | AIGFS & UKMO within 0.1°F | 7°F | |
| Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | AIFS & UKMO within 0.1°F | — | |
| Phoenix, Arizona | ECMWF & GFS within 0.29°F | — | |
| Salt Lake City, Utah | GFS & GEM within 0.1°F | 3°F | |
| San Antonio, Texas | ECMWF & UKMO within 0.14°F | — | |
| San Diego, California | GEM & GFS within 0.03°F | — | |
| San Francisco, California | ECMWF & AIFS within 0.32°F | — | |
| Seattle, Washington | UKMO & GEM within 0.03°F | 6°F | |
| St. Louis, Missouri | ECMWF & ICON within 0.01°F | — | |
| Tampa, Florida | AIGFS by 0.42°F over ICON | — | |
| Washington, District of Columbia | GEM & UKMO within 0.14°F | — |
What one scored day looks like
The most recent day we settled, whichever way it went — not the one that flatters the models.
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 74° to 109°; by the final call they had settled to a median of 100°. It hit 102° — GFS landed closest, off 0.1°.
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74° 109°
102° actual
Each bar is the full range of the models still forecasting that day, in °F; the rule is what the OKC observations recorded. This one opened 35° wide and closed to 2°. Across every day we have scored, the range narrows even though more models arrive as the day approaches — a median 11.6° at 13 days out with four models, 5.8° on the day with seven. See this day's full receipt →
More scored days
The next-most-recent settled days across the archive — records, not rankings: each bar is the models' opening range, the rule is what happened.
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Washington · Sun Sep 6
4 models opened 72–84° at 13 days out; it hit 85° — GFS closest, off 0.1°.
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Tampa · Sun Sep 6
4 models opened 82–100° at 12 days out; it hit 90° — AIFS closest, off 0.2°.
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St. Louis · Sun Sep 6
4 models opened 79–98° at 12 days out; it hit 90° — ECMWF closest, off 0.1°.
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Seattle · Sun Sep 6
4 models opened 63–83° at 14 days out; it hit 74° — GFS closest, off 0.1°.
How the scoring works
Each model's 1-, 3-, and 7-day-ahead forecasts are captured from its actual archived runs (nothing is reconstructed after the fact), then verified against each city's truth — its own station's observations where one is pinned, the ECMWF IFS analysis otherwise — once the day has happened. Bias is the signed average error — positive means the model ran warm. The typical miss (MAE) is the average absolute error. Cities join these pages as they join The Spread's archive.
Two things you should know about the yardstick. Where a city is pinned to its own station, models are verified against that thermometer's observed highs outright, and the city page names the station. Everywhere else, truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis — ECMWF's operational product, a grid rather than a thermometer, while two of the seven models scored here are ECMWF's own. Every registry city has been pinned to its station since 2026-08-22, so the grid is the yardstick only for places no thermometer serves, and those pages say so.
The Spread itself is in closed beta — these verification pages and the Updates log are public while the rest of the product is gated. If you want in, ask for an invite — say where you forecast and I will send you one.