Was the forecast right for Washington on Tue Aug 11?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 87° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° with 0.05 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. GEM ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-27 | — | 89° | — | — | 103° | — | — | 89–103° |
| 14d · 2026-07-28 | 90° | 84° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 13d · 2026-07-29 | 87° | 88° | 89° | — | 90° | — | — | 87–90° |
| 12d · 2026-07-30 | 90° | 86° | 86° | — | 83° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 11d · 2026-07-31 | 94° | 92° | 88° | — | 95° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 10d · 2026-08-01 | 94° | 83° | 93° | — | 95° | — | — | 83–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-02 | 89° | 74° | 90° | — | 90° | — | — | 74–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-03 | 89° | 92° | 95° | 91° | 93° | — | — | 89–95° |
| 7d · 2026-08-04 | 90° | 89° | 94° | 94° | 99° | — | — | 89–99° |
| 6d · 2026-08-05 | 90° | 89° | 99° | 88° | 88° | 98° | — | 88–99° |
| 5d · 2026-08-06 | 91° | 88° | 96° | 94° | 98° | 93° | 99° | 88–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-07 | 88° | 90° | 95° | 85° | 95° | 97° | 96° | 85–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-08 | 91° | 92° | 94° | 91° | 96° | 83° | 96° | 83–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-09 | 90° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 88° | 96° | 88–96° |
| 1d · 2026-08-10 | 91° | 90° | 93° | 90° | 94° | 87° | 90° | 87–94° |
| 0d · 2026-08-11 | 87° | 87° | 90° | 92° | 87° | 90° | 90° | 87–92° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.