Was the forecast right for Washington on Tue Aug 11?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 30° to 32°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. ERA5 says the day verified at 31° with 1.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-27 | — | 32° | — | — | 39° | — | — | 32–39° |
| 14d · 2026-07-28 | 32° | 29° | — | — | 31° | — | — | 29–32° |
| 13d · 2026-07-29 | 30° | 31° | 32° | — | 32° | — | — | 30–32° |
| 12d · 2026-07-30 | 32° | 30° | 30° | — | 28° | — | — | 28–32° |
| 11d · 2026-07-31 | 35° | 33° | 31° | — | 35° | — | — | 31–35° |
| 10d · 2026-08-01 | 35° | 29° | 34° | — | 35° | — | — | 29–35° |
| 9d · 2026-08-02 | 32° | 24° | 32° | — | 32° | — | — | 24–32° |
| 8d · 2026-08-03 | 31° | 33° | 35° | 33° | 34° | — | — | 31–35° |
| 7d · 2026-08-04 | 32° | 32° | 35° | 34° | 37° | — | — | 32–37° |
| 6d · 2026-08-05 | 32° | 32° | 37° | 31° | 31° | 37° | — | 31–37° |
| 5d · 2026-08-06 | 33° | 31° | 36° | 35° | 37° | 34° | 37° | 31–37° |
| 4d · 2026-08-07 | 31° | 32° | 35° | 29° | 35° | 36° | 36° | 29–36° |
| 3d · 2026-08-08 | 33° | 33° | 34° | 33° | 35° | 28° | 36° | 28–36° |
| 2d · 2026-08-09 | 32° | 32° | 34° | 33° | 33° | 31° | 36° | 31–36° |
| 1d · 2026-08-10 | 33° | 32° | 34° | 32° | 35° | 30° | 32° | 30–35° |
| 0d · 2026-08-11 | 31° | 31° | 32° | 33° | 31° | 32° | 32° | 31–33° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.