Was the forecast right for Washington on Sat Aug 1?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
5 days out, 7 models put Washington's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 85° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. ERA5 says the day verified at 90° with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. ICON ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 85° | 87° | 87° | 90° | 88° | 91° | 85–91° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 88° | 85° | 87° | 86° | 91° | 86° | 86° | 85–91° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 89° | 85° | 94° | 88° | 94° | 90° | 89° | 85–94° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 90° | 87° | 94° | 91° | 94° | 91° | 91° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 87° | 94° | 96° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 87–96° |
| 0d · 2026-08-01 | 90° | 87° | 90° | 93° | 91° | 87° | 90° | 87–93° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.