The Spread

Was the forecast right for Tampa on Sat Aug 29?

Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations

4 days out, 7 models put Tampa's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 29° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 33° against the TPA observations, with 34.3 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.

4 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-08-25 29° 33° 32° 33° 36° 32° 33° 29–36°
3d · 2026-08-26 30° 33° 32° 33° 36° 32° 34° 30–36°
2d · 2026-08-27 32° 33° 32° 35° 36° 33° 34° 32–36°
1d · 2026-08-28 32° 34° 33° 34° 35° 34° 33° 32–35°
0d · 2026-08-29 32° 35° 31° 34° 35° 33° 32° 31–35°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.