Which weather model is most accurate in Tampa?
Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Tampa at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the TPA observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-07-26 to 2026-08-24), for daily high temperature.
One day out, NOAA AIGFS (AI) has been most accurate (typical miss 1.49°F); at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 3.52°F at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 1.49°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 1.5° (-0.1°) | 2.0° (-0.8°) | 2.9° (-0.0°) | 30 |
| DWD ICON | 2.0° (-0.0°) | 2.3° (+0.1°) | — | 30 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 2.1° (-1.4°) | 2.2° (-1.7°) | 2.5° (-1.1°) | 30 |
| ECMWF IFS | 2.2° (-1.1°) | 2.3° (-1.1°) | 2.9° (-1.6°) | 30 |
| UKMO (UK) | 2.5° (+0.7°) | 3.2° (+1.4°) | — | 30 |
| GEM (Canada) | 2.8° (+1.1°) | 2.2° (-0.3°) | 2.8° (+0.5°) | 30 |
| NOAA GFS | 3.5° (+3.4°) | 3.6° (+3.5°) | 4.0° (+3.6°) | 30 |
| NBM (US blend) | 2.3° (-1.4°) | 2.4° (-1.2°) | 2.6° (-0.6°) | 30 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 1.5° (-0.0°) | 1.6° (-0.0°) | 2.1° (+0.0°) | 30 |
Method, honestly
The Spread's Tampa point is the Tampa Intl station (TPA), 8 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is TPA observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.